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Could Paul Ryan defeat Joe Biden in Kentucky debate?

peter g. evans By peter g. evans | October 11, 2012 | United States

Paul Ryan could deliver a major blow to President Barack Obama's hopes of re-election if he prevails today at debate in Kentucky.

Biden, who was a Senator for 36 years, is legendarily verbose and prone to verbal slips which have been a boon to the Romney campaign - most particularly when he said the middle class had been "buried" under Obama.

Ryan, 42, is widely seen as one of the most intellectually  of a new Republican generation, a policy expert steeped in  the economy. He  entered Congress in 1999 when he was just 28.

By a 40 per cent to a 34 per cent margin, voters expect Ryan to beat Biden  at their debate. 

This could create an expectations problem for Ryan - much as was the case for Obama, who was heavily favoured by voters before he was trounced by Romney in the first presidential debate in Denver.

At the weekend, Ryan said of Biden: "He's fast on the cuff, he's a witty guy. He knows who he is and he's been doing this for 40 years".

Romney  telling CNN: "I don’t know how Paul will take on the debate. Obviously the Vice President has done 15-20 debates in his lifetime, he is an experienced debater.   But  I am sure Paul will do fine. Frankly, he has policy, facts, and results on his side. So I think you find in the analysis people make the assessment on these debates not so much on the theatrics or smoothness of the presenter, but the policies and pathways being described"

In fact, according to ABC News, Ryan has taken part in at least eight debates during his 14 years in Congress - though none of them anything like as high-profile as Thursday's clash, which could be seen by as many as the 67 million who watched Romney and Obama in Denver.

According to Pew, Biden, whose role in the campaign is as attack dog and as the man who can connect with blue-collar voters, is viewed favourably by just 39 per cent of voters. Four years ago, when he faced Palin, his favourability rating was 53 per cent.

Romney has leapt to level pegging - or even into the lead - in national polls since his much-praised debate performance in Denver. While Obama still holds slim leads in battleground states, his campaign badly needs to alter the trajectory of the race.

Biden has the opportunity to do that but traditionally vice-presidential debate, while they have provided entertainment and some big moments, have not had an appreciable effect on the general election result.



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